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Where All This Leads To?


As they say, history repeats itself. A deja vu feeling sets in while I am sizing up the precarious situation we are in now. We're back circa Nov. 2000 when the nation faced the dilemma of impeaching a sitting president Erap Estrada. The question is, does history will really repeat itself? In other words, does the present situation leads to an successful impeachment in Congress? If GMA is impeached,  does it lead to a conclusive trial and conviction in the Senate? If not, does it all end up in another Edsa-like uprising? I'm pretty sure that all these possible scenarios play in my minds of our concerned citizens today.

But let me assess first the situation. Two factions of the opposition is present - one, resign-gloria-noli-takeover group of Cory/Drilon/Hyatt 10/MBC and two, resign-gloria-junta/council govt. of "mainstream" opposition of Erap/Eddie Vill/Rightists/Leftists and all other "tists". With all the rallies mounted by the "mainstream" opposition, Gloria is at her pedestal. With the kamikaze calls of resignation of Hyatt 10/Cory/Drilon, still she was saved by the bell of another Eddie, the steady Eddie ex-president Ramos, seconded by the Jedi council head, Yoda, err, De Venecia.

With the military waiting (or intently watching)in the sidelines by insisting that they be apolitical, and with the bishops call not for GMA to resign but to resort to a constitutional process, thus, the opposition was left with no other recourse but to resort to the inevitable process of impeachment.

Judging with the Erap trial, this may take at least another 3 agonizing months if ever this will come into a conviction or acquittal. And again judging from the way the "Hello Garci tape" hearing is conducted in the House, i wondered if ever this may result in an impeachment. Therefore, i can draw up four (4)possible scenarios; immediate, short-term, medium-term and long term resolution of the crises.

Immediate Resolution

That Gloria will resign before the SONA on July 25. She will come to realize that it is no longer tenable to continue to govern the country and ask for sincere forgiveness, once and for all. With this statesmanship act, she will be allowed to travel to the U.S. to be with his Mike and son.

Short-Term Resolution

That PGMA will watch whether she can still muster enough loyal congressman to her side to prevent the impending impeachment. With the  tight grip of the House, wherein congressmen might not support the impeachment move because of the charter change proposal of FVR where they all can benefit, they might as well kill the impeachment at the Justice committee deliberations. Therefore, the impeachment move is dead as well as the hopes of the bishops for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

The opposition will not let this sitting down and once and all, call a last showdown in the street, ala-EDSA IV in the making. Following the "second envelope" situation like the Erap trial, they will mount daily rallies which will now be attended by the middle forces, silent majority, and all like-minded citizens who want the due process to continue. If there is a snowballing effect on these rallies, the military and the bishops will call the "withdrawal of support" which the opposition is waiting since Day one of the crisis. Bye-bye Gloria if this blueprint will happen.

Medium-Term Resolution

After so many hours and days debating on the complaint and with the very strong public-pressure, the president will be impeached in the House and the complaint transmitted to the Senate. GMA realizing the futility of going to a very sure conviction trial because of the lost majority in the Senate, will ultimately call it quits. Now she realizes she can't win the battle in the minority-controlled Senate after the defection of Drilon et al.

Or perhaps she will go for a trial, hoping that perhaps she can persuade to her side one or two Senators in the minority (possibly Enrile and Angara who supported the charter change proposal of De Venecia) and tip the balance in favor of her acquittal. But with the overwhelming evidence and guilty-verdict of the public, this will result to a massive howl of protest which will again culminate in the streets. As if in cue, the military and the bishops will save the day for the beleaguered republic, as if they hold the key to the resolution of all political conflicts.

Long-Term Resolution

This may result in a trial but it drags on and on for months. Why? first they still want to confer with the Supreme Court whether the wiretap tape is admissible or inadmissible in court. If admissible, the pro-gma may still want them first to be authenticated by FBI/Scotland Yard before this is being admitted in the trial. Before they could reach a verdict or resolution, the House will now proceed with the Cha-cha thru Constituent Assembly and will now have a new Constitution ready for a plebiscite before yearend. The people will now have lost their appetite for the continuation of the trial and will accept the parliamentary/federalism form of govt.

However, we will only realize later that Cha-cha is being used only to bring back the government of Ramos with perhaps a term-sharing of De Venecia as prime minister for life.

Thus, ALL IS WELL THAT DOES NOT ENDS WELL.

Sorry my folks, but I'm beginning to believe what I've been hearing from a foreigner...."That the Philippines is a beautiful country but is not blessed with good leaders".




Posted: July 15, 2005 ,   Modified: July 19, 2005

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