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A NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE>>>>>>THE ROGUE STATE.?

A TV program about a Mobile Army Surgical Hospital for a long time relived the forgotten conflict of the Korean War. The program was called MASH and to a great extent it overlooked the country in favour of exploiting the situation that US army doctors found themselves dealing with.

The program was set in a country on the edge of a super power, China. The country itself was Korea a land occupied by the Japanese in the Second World War but in those days it was one country yet the same is not true today, it is divided by the 38th parallel with North Korea wedged between China and the 38th parallel and South of the same line South Korea occupies the peninsula that claws its way out into the sea of Japan.
In 1948 the dividing parallel was designated as the border between the North and South by both the US and the Soviet Union though most Koreans regarded the decision as the “Act of an occupying power”. The Koreans were not consulted the decision was imposed by two super powers who could not formulate an agreement over the joint trusteeship over Korea. What was once one country now had two capital cities Seoul in the south, Pyongyang in the north both had legitimate governments, and both claimed that the other was illegal.
Between 1948 and 1950 border conflicts between north and south grew in severity and inevitably resulted in a “Civil War” when the armies of the north crossed the border to the south with the intention of reunifying the country under the political system of North Korea which was defined as ”A communist led democratic multi-party state of the Juche political ideology, that is the official line but the evidence shows it to be a rather brutal dictatorship demanding absolute loyalty. It utilises the central planning system to implement socio-economic policy and is a far extreme cousin of both the Leninist Soviet system and rigours of Maoist China. The war in Korea raged on until 1953 when the UN Command, the Korean Peoples Army and the Chinese Peoples Volunteers signed an Armistice Agreement.  A ceasefire was enforced but the dispute has never been resolved to the satisfaction of the North

At the cessation of hostilities the “President” of North Korea was Kim Il-sung who was the leader of the country from 1948 until his death in 1994 though his title was General Secretary of the Korean Workers party. He was Nevertheless president in all but name.
Three years after the death of Kin Il-sung his son Kin Jong-Il was appointed as the General Secretary of The Korean Workers Party and seems to be continuing the work started by his father. He was confirmed as Chairman of the National Defence Commission in 1998 by the legislatures, who regard the office as “the highest office of the state”.
In 1999 plans to develop a missile delivery system and develop a nuclear capability were already well advanced and work continued amid protests from the US, Russia and China [China were always supportive of the North Korean regime]. All feared that the events in North Korea would destabilise the region. The US had already placed North Korea high upon the list of countries it believed subscribed to the “Axis of Evil”.
A series of talks called “The six party talks” were held in Beijing. The six were the USA, Russia, China, Japan, and both North and South Korea. The point of the talks was to convince North Korea to abandon its uranium enrichment program, which the USA maintain, is in breach of a 1994 agreement on arms limitation. Some progress was made but the sticking point was that North Korea agreed to suspend its nuclear research only if the US resumed oil shipments to North Korea and removed the country from its list of countries suspected of “State sponsored terrorism” [The Axis of Evil]. The talks had stalled or at least paused because the next meeting was set for February 25th 2007.
In the summer of 2005 and 2006 the Koreans had “Tested” the prototypes of missiles developed for military use, the first was said to have been a failure by military observers and assessors from the US a claim hotly disputed by North Korea who maintained that all six “birds flew successfully in 2005[the 2005 tests demonstrated a missile with a range of 100 miles]. The missile tests in 2006 showed that they had a delivery system that had a range approaching 4000 miles, enough to hit a target in Alaska or Hawaii but not the range to hit the US mainland, yet!
The “Demonstration” for that is surely what it was brought further US protests and calls for decisive action to curtail what the US sees as a military intention by Korea.
Russia and China at that point remained unconvinced of either the capability or the intent of North Korea yet favoured any action, which fell short of punitive sanctions.

In August 2006 The Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea declared the armistice signed to end the Korean War was “Null and Void”.

On October 9th 2006 North Korea carried out an underground test on a device that is believed to be nuclear, seismographic measurements initially estimated the force of the explosion at close to 3.6 megatons but later asserted that it was equivalent to 15,000 tons of TNT. The seismic disruption mimicked a small earthquake but its message has held echoes in the Kremlin, The White house and in Beijing. Both China and Russia have a common border with North Korea and any conflict in the area would bring refugees from the 25 million North Koreans that neither country could cope with easily. It was thought by Washington that it was a ploy to force the USA back to the six party talks. North Korea maintain that they need a nuclear capability to defend their country from American aggression.

North Korean infrastructure is not the most secure and much of its population is at present being fed by the World Food Program, more than 70% of its power requirement is generated by China and its agriculture is still unable to increase its production to a level of self sufficiency. There are already American sanctions in place and they are beginning to bite, with shortages becoming more common it would be difficult for any regime to remain in control. The human rights record of the country is not a shinning example of tolerance. There are between 150,000 and 200,000 political prisoners held in prison camps where what can only be described, as slave labour is commonplace. Enforced abortion is also a tool used by the state to control the spread of the more undesirable elements on a regular basis. Freedom of expression or speech is a myth that the average North Korean has only heard about and justice is a commodity for sale or favour.

On Monday Beijing issued a statement that “Resolutely opposed” the nuclear test in North Korea calling for the government in Pyongyang to return to the North Asian talks on nuclear disarmament. Such a break of faith is a sign that China would co-operate in curbing the military ambitions of North Korea.

Seismologists in Norway and Russia put the seismic “Event” at a force between one and ten megatons but sources in the US have doubted whether it was a Nuclear test at all maintaining that it could have been faked with enough conventional explosive.
The area where the “test” was thought to have taken place was Punggyeri a mountainous region in the north of the country sufficiently remote and difficult to photograph but a source inside South Koreas intelligence community maintains that there has been and still is an “Unusual level of activity” in the area.

Plutonium contrary to popular opinion is a very tightly controlled substance for which anyone who has it has to account, it is known that North Korea has between 30 and 40 kilograms of plutonium stockpiled and allowing a minimum of five kilograms per device that would be enough to construct seven or possibly eight nuclear bombs. However, making a bomb is one thing delivering it to a target is quite different.
Assuming that they now have a missile capable of travelling 4000 miles and they have now tested a nuclear device the next question is “Have they got the technology to miniaturise such a device so that it could be carried by a missile”. It is at this stage extremely unlikely but understandably the international community and in particular the “Nuclear Top table” are not willing to take that chance.

Russia has made it clear that it will not support trade sanctions against North Korea whilst the US does and China once the most ardent of supporters of North Korea is now shifting its ground to a position where it may consider pulling the plug on the power supplies to North Korea if it becomes absolutely necessary.
The IAEA [The International Atomic Energy Authority] inspectors are not frequent visitors to North Korea and would not be welcome if they were but they will be at the emergency meeting of the UN Security Council  [called by the USA] when the subject of North Korea comes to the table.
At the time of posting this article Japan claimed that a second underground test may have taken place this morning but seismic monitoring stations in Russia, Norway and the US all said that they had detected nothing. The fear that they may have conducted further tests is all that Pyongyang needs to do to create the concern that will bring a solution to its problem.

The first question to be addressed will surely be “How did such an undisputed rogue state develop a weapon of mass destruction so quickly and could it happen again”? A question they must have asked not long ago when the same scenario was played out in Iran who still maintain that their intent is “Peaceful”.
The fact remains that two members of what the US call “The Axis of Evil” have managed to produce the thought at least that they will soon have a finger upon a red button that can launch a nuclear weapon, both of them regarded as “Rogue states”.

Four days after the event of the first "Test" Aircraft which have sensitive air sampling equipment have overflown North Korea,American Intelligence said they reported that there is no trace of radio active particles in the air. If there had been an atomic explosion even if it was underground there should have been some residue........there was none. By the following day the BBC reported that the same mission did find evidence of radio activity though the sample was not conclussive evidence that a nuclear test had taken place.

JP.

Posted: October 11, 2006 ,   Modified: October 14, 2006

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